Enemy Lines: Postscript

Before I get to UNLV, I thought I’d post two more installments of Enemy Lines with my friend Christian Swezey from The Washington Post to wrap up the Navy game. I’ll be posting his response later. To see our pregame exchanges, scroll down to parts 1-4 below.

Jake Schaller Wrote: Sweze – So that’s five in a row for the Midshipmen. And, as you pointed out in your article in Sunday’s Post, this might have been Air Force’s best shot to beat Navy for the next few years. All but 44 of Air Force’s 474 total yards on Saturday were picked up by seniors (Travis Dekker actually is now being listed as a junior, as he was given a medical turnback and has one more year of eligibility remaining). Navy, meantime, had a bunch of underclassmen making big-time contributions on both sides of the ball.

Last Saturday’s game was difficult for a lot of Air Force fans to swallow because the Falcons out-gained Navy and held the ball longer than the Midshipmen. Air Force moved the ball up and down the field but faltered in the red zone. And that leads to a lot off “what-iffing.”

-What if Shaun Carney hadn’t made a bad pitch that resulted in a loss of 11 yards deep in Navy territory on Air Force’s second drive of the game?

-What if Ryan Harrison had made that 41-yard field goal?

-What if the Falcons had stopped just one of Navy’s two fourth-down conversions on the drive during which the Midshipmen took the lead for good?

-What if Air Force hadn’t self-destructed with those three penalties that took it out of scoring range in the fourth quarter?

There are plenty more. And they all provide evidence for the “Air Force lost, Navy didn’t win” argument that many around the academy have made the last five years. But the way I see it, those arguments work for a year, maybe two. But five? It’s habit now. There’s a reason why Navy is making the big/important plays and Air Force is not.

So, why do you think it’s Navy making the plays? Confidence from winning a bunch in a row?

And, also, wanted to get your take on Air Force. Do you think the Falcons can rebound and challenge for a conference title or at least a bowl bid? I think a lot of people are starting to wonder if the first three games of the season were a bit of a mirage. Air Force beat Utah on a day when the Utes did not have their top quarterback, running back or receiver. And the Falcons beat a TCU team that was without Aaron Brown. Maybe that fast start was more emotion, surprise (with AF's new offensive and defensive philosophies) and a lot of breaks going Air Force's way. Guess we'll find out more this week.

Bulletin Board BlogDog

Air Force players and coaches have been on their best behavior this week, refraining from any trash talk that might incite Navy.

Or so they thought.

Judging by the amount of e-mails I got this week from Navy fans regarding my story that appeared in Wednesday’s edition of The Gazette, the Midshipmen have exactly what they need to play the “they-don’t-respect-us” card.

The article explained that while the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy is still “a key element” of the Air Force program, according to first-year coach Troy Calhoun, it is no longer the team’s number one goal, as it was when Fisher DeBerry was the coach. Competing within the Mountain West Conference and earning bids to bowl games now rank right with winning the trophy.

Of course, those Navy fans who e-mailed me interpreted the article as: “Air Force doesn’t care about the Navy game.”

Um. … OK.

It’s reminiscent of last year when, after the Falcons' game against the Midshipmen, Navy coach Paul Johnson referred to what he perceived as repeated slights made about the Midshipmen from the Air Force camp.

“You get tired of hearing it every year,” he said after Navy’s 24-17 victory, its fourth straight in the teams’ series. “I thought our guys did a real good job this year of not saying anything. Every day we’d pick up the paper, we’d see something about, it’s embarrassing to lose to us, we’re the luckiest team in America, we’re this, we’re that. It gets old after a while.”

Reporters in the press box searched their notes after the game and came up with only one comment that could be construed as such – then-junior Noah Garguile said the Falcons’ losing streak to Navy was “an embarrassment.” Not losing to Navy, mind you, but losing three in a row. Nonetheless, Navy was insulted. (Side note: In the “Last Year” section of the game notes released this week by Navy’s sports information department, Garguile’s comment was mentioned in the first sentence!)

Frankly, I find the “nobody respects us” routine tired. Remember when the Pittsburgh Steelers tried to use it in the Super Bowl a couple years ago? They were the FAVORITES! But nobody respected them. Sure.

Which brings us to this week’s pick by the BlogDog.

For Navy fans who might be reading this blog for the first time, here’s some background: As a beat writer, I am not allowed, per The Gazette’s policies, to predict the outcomes of games involving the team I cover. But I love prediction columns, so my dog, Norm, is picking the games.

Here’s how he does it: I put a mini-replica Air Force helmet and the mini-replica helmet of the opponent the Falcons are facing that week in front of Norm. Whichever one Norm goes to first (best three out of five times) is the one he thinks is going to win.

If Norm picks the same helmet three times in a row, he’s thinking blowout. If he chooses one team three times and the other team once, he’s thinking the game will be decided by about seven to 10 points. If he chooses one team three times and the other one twice, he’s predicting a close game.

One problem: Because I only have helmets of teams from the Mountain West Conference, I had to improvise this week. So I wrote “Air Force” on one piece of paper and “Navy” on another.

Norm went to the Navy paper first, then Air Force twice in a row. Then Navy. Then, after circling both pieces of paper … went to Air Force.

Now, Norm does not have any sort of allegiance to Air Force (nor do I, contrary to what many of the e-mails I received this week inferred). And if anything, you could make a stronger argument that Norm is biased against Air Force because of the amount of time I have to spend at the academy during the season (time that I can’t spend throwing his tennis ball).

But Norm knows his reputation as a prognosticator prohibits him from holding grudges. So he’s not a fan of Air Force (evidenced by the fact that he’s picked against the Falcons twice this year), and he's not a fan of any of his opponents. He never went to college, so he doesn’t have an alma mater. The only football team he roots for is the Washington Redskins, though he has a bit of a problem with the team’s inherently racist nickname and imagery.

Anyway, all that said, I’m sure word of Norm’s pick will spread across Annapolis and be used by the Midshipmen as motivation. (“Look at this! Even a dog doesn’t believe in you guys!”)

And if Navy wins and proves the BlogDog wrong, I fully expect this type of post-game address from Navy’s Johnson: “Well, that’s five in a row, spin it any way you want to spin it. I guess Air Force will say we got lucky. And so will that BlogDog. Yeah, we saw his pick. We read about it. We know he turned his back on us. And let me tell you something: Nothing gets these guys fired up more than a reporter’s dog picking against them. From the moment he put his paw on that piece of paper that said “Air Force,” well, you can believe these boys were ready to play.”

Norm’s Pick: Air Force 31, Navy 27
Norm’s Record: 3-1

Mmmm. Air Force looks good this week.

Enemy Lines, Part 4

(Note: This is the fourth segment of an e-mail correspondence between me and my friend Christian Swezey, who covers Navy football for The Washington Post. For our initial e-mails, scroll down to Parts 1, 2 and 3).

Christian Swezey wrote: Jake – First of all I have enlisted BlogWife to make sure that no one puts gravy on the slip of paper that reads “Air Force” and thus unduly influences BlogDog’s prediction for the game. Like the coin toss for the playoff berth in “Friday Night Lights,” I will have representation present if need be (haha).



About coaching … it’s very close. Both head coaches appear to be excellent play callers who are one step (at least) ahead of the defenses. A longtime AF football follower once told me that Paul Johnson was the closest he’d seen to Ken Hatfield in terms of playcalling. That’s a pretty good compliment.



Special teams favor AF. Navy has four punts in four games, so no idea if the kid is any good. The Mids’ kicking game has been a problem, a la ND back in 1993.



Intangibles may favor AF. The old saying is when teams are even pick the one to whom the game matters more. AF has many more seniors playing this year than does Navy.



Thanks for the tidbit about AF’s safety and Carson Bird. Here’s something for free: Keep my eye on Navy's two offensive tackles, McGinn and Meek. They are pretty solid.



btw … forecast for Saturday is sunny and 76 degrees.


Jake Schaller wrote: Sweze – A little gravy wouldn’t influence the BlogDog. After four games, you’re talking about an experienced prognosticator.

He’ll make his pick tonight, and I’ll release it tomorrow. I understand that within minutes of his pick going public, the lines in Vegas shift one to two points.

Sounds like Saturday is going to be an amazing day. I was wondering if it was going to be hot and humid like it was last week. Either way, though, Air Force players are in great shape – better than they’ve been in years, as Calhoun has ratcheted up the conditioning and lifting players do in-season.

Speaking of the weather, I understand the heat last week contributed to Navy’s starting QB heading to the bench in the third quarter. Was it all the heat and his exhaustion, or did Kaipo’s performance have anything to do with that? And Johnson told me that Kaipo will start but he’s not opposed to using two QBs. What’s’ the deal there?

Enemy Lines, Part 3

(Note: This is the third segment of an e-mail correspondence between me and my friend Christian Swezey, who covers Navy football for The Washington Post. For our initial e-mails, scroll down to Parts 1 and 2.)

Jake Schaller wrote: Air Force has better athletes than it gets credit for, and Carson Bird is foremost among them. He is the player that truly personifies the difference between this year’s attacking defense and last year’s passive defense. He is aggressive and likes to go after receivers in press coverage – he is the strongest of the Falcons’ defensive backs.

Another one of the best athletes on the team is sophomore strong safety Chris Thomas. Expect him to play a major role in Saturday’s game as strong safeties always are key to shutting down triple-option attacks. He’s the perfect guy to creep into the box and make some plays against Navy. I wrote once before that if they forgot to pack his equipment, he’d probably go out on the field in shorts and a t-shirt. He’s tough, physical, loves to hit and has that knack for being around the ball.

As for the o-line, it was a big question mark coming into the season. It had been pretty good until last weekend against BYU. We’ll see.

Anyway, a reader asked me which team I think (and asked me to ask you which team you think) has the advantage in special teams, coaching and intangibles.

Here's how I see it ...

Special teams: Push. Ryan Harrison is the best kicker Air Force has had in years, and he could be the difference Saturday. But Navy's kicker has made some big-time field goals as well - last week against Duke and, most notably, against Air Force in '05. Air Force's coverage/return games have been better than last year so far, but its punting has been average.

Coaching: Push. You can't argue with what Paul Johnson has done at Navy - he's won four straight over Air Force and made the Midshipmen a fixture in bowl season.

Calhoun, meanwhile, already has worked wonders at Air Force. I think Fisher DeBerry is a coaching legend, but if the Falcons had last year's coaching staff this season, I think they're entering this game 1-3.

Intangibles: This is close, too, but how can you not go with Navy? Four straight victories, all by one score or less. If it gets close, Air Force will think it can win, Navy will know it can win.

Enemy Lines, Part 2

(Note: This is the second segment of an e-mail correspondence between me and my friend Christian Swezey, who covers Navy football for The Washington Post. For our initial e-mails – and so these two make more sense – scroll down to Part 1).


Jake Schaller Wrote: Sweze - Making a crack about what AF stands for is one thing, but how dare you question the BlogDog’s skills! I’m sure Norm is well aware that Navy’s helmets have blue facemasks while Notre Dame’s are gray.

Besides, I only have Mountain West Conference helmets, so I’ll just have to write “Navy” on one piece of paper and “Air Force” on another and do it that way. I was thinking about making BlogDog choose between the sky and water (Get it? Air Force and Navy?) but I’m not exactly sure how I’d do that.

Anyway, interesting stuff about the morale at the Naval Academy. But, like you said, I’m sure that Air Force will get everyone in Annapolis fired up. And I think that comeback against Duke probably was a season-saver.

My take on Navy? I haven’t seen too much of the Midshipmen yet, but it’s pretty obvious by the scores of the games that they’ve struggled on defense (thanks to key injuries) and been great on offense.

I think Air Force’s offense likely will be able to put up points on Navy’s defense. The key matchup, I think, will be Navy’s offense against Air Force’s defense. Not including the BYU game, the Falcons have been much improved on defense this year. And that’s huge.

Remember last year, when we couldn’t believe how Air Force played with its two inside linebackers about 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage, and Navy’s fullback would pick up big chunks of yards before he got touched? I doubt we’ll see that this year. New Air Force defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter employs an aggressive style, and I think you’ll see the Falcons try to attack Navy. They might get beat for a couple of big plays, but they also should make a few.

Which team do you give the advantage to when Navy has the ball and when Air Force has the ball? And which team do you give the advantage to when it comes to special teams, coaching and intangibles?

-Jake


Christian Swezey Wrote: Navy O vs. AF D will be closer than last year. As you noted, Navy won without ever getting out of second gear. AF's defense never got aggressive and the Mids were content to gain 5, 6 and 7 yards simply running up the middle. The Falcons never made them to do anything different.

No matter what defenses do, though, the Mids have an answer. This is the first time since 2002-03 that they have a starting quarterback back, and it shows. I have seen more wrinkles from Navy on offense in four weeks than I'd seen in the previous few years. Just when you think Paul Johnson has shown everything he has, he comes up with quite a lot more.

When AF has the ball ... that's a close one. Navy (finally) came up with a few things that worked against Duke. Not least were some safety blitzes from sophomore Ram Vela and the pairing of two rather highly recruited d-linemen, Nate Frazier and Andy Lark, together. Previously Lark had been Frazier's backup.

Lark and Frazier have excellent size and Frazier has good speed, too. Both were very accomplished heavyweight wrestlers in high school. Lark usually ties up one or two people up front and Frazier has been stunting to get to the QB quicker.

Ball State used its tight ends to great effect, so I would not be surprised to see Dekker be a big part of the game plan on Saturday. Duke and Rutgers were able to throw downfield but they have more speed at WR than Air Force, so I discount some of that. AF's best chance to get downfield is if Carney buys time; I do not think they will get anything off straight routes down the field.

Other than downfield passing, Navy is vulnerable in the open field. They are not great tacklers there. This is where underneath routes for Hall and Smith will be important. Get them in the open field with some space, or if Carney can break contain, AF will be in business.

Does AF have some good athletes? Is the defense better with Carson Bird playing? I have to say, I was a little surprised he didn't play more against the Mids last year. And how is the o-line looking? Dekker won't be any good to the Falcons if they have to max protect.

Enemy Lines, Part 1

One of my best friends in or out of the newspaper business is Christian Swezey, with whom I worked at The Washington Post. Sweze covers Navy football for The Post, and he’s been kind enough to share some of his thoughts on the Midshipmen and this weekend’s game for the blog.

Basically, we’re going to e-mail each other about the game this week. I’ll put our exchanges up periodically in a segment I’m calling Enemy Lines. If you have a question about Navy that you’d like me to ask, feel free to shoot me an e-mail or leave a comment on the blog.


Jake Schaller wrote: Yo Sweze!

Big game for both teams this week, as it is every year. But I think it’s especially critical for Air Force.

Before the start of the season, if you had offered most Air Force fans a 3-2 September, they probably would have taken it in a heartbeat. But the 3-0 start raised expectations. Now, I think, 3-2 with two straight losses would feel like a disappointment. And considering how Air Force teams of the last few seasons have let one loss turn into two or more losses, I think this is a season-defining game.

Sounds, from what I’ve read, that Navy might have had a season-defining game last week. What was the feel around Annapolis after the two straight losses to Rutgers and Ball State, and how much did the come-from-behind victory over Duke change that feel?



-Jake


Christian Swezey wrote: What’s up Jake!!



Dude, quick question: With BlogDog's pick this week, are you using the same helmet for Navy and ND? If so, are you certain Blog Dog won't get confused?



Anyway, Navy's win over Duke was a pretty big deal. I mean, even Paul Johnson was in the pile of happy players who piled on kicker Joey Bullen after he made that field goal with no time left. Though Johnson got out of there pretty quick!



Morale at the Naval Academy has been a little low so far. The new superintendent has put some pretty stringent rules in place – a lot less liberty (i.e. weekends off), less Mids going to away games, there were problems with food in the dining hall, etc.



So the victory came at a good time, especially over Duke, which is no one’s favorite in any sport. The Mids needed confidence in the worst way, and they got it.



It may help Air Force to know that the Brigade was a little flat at the Duke game. Again, some of it is probably the low morale. My guess is the sight of 500 Air Force cadets in their uniforms will be a little bit of a wake-up call to them. I expect it will be loud on Saturday, and also expect a phenomenal game.



What's your take on Navy? Do you really think that 3-1 turning to 3-2 would be a bad sign for the Falcons? I have to say, I thought AF would be 1-3 entering the Navy game. Also – is it true the “AF” stands for “Arrogant fools”??



-Christian

BlogDog, Brew and BYU

The dream is over.

After exploding onto the football prognostication stage by correctly predicting his first two games (and nearly nailing the score of the second exactly), BlogDog got the cold water of reality splashed into his face last week.

(For those of you just discovering this blog, my dog, Norm, is predicting the outcome of games this year because I am not allowed to as a beat writer).

BlogDog predicted a TCU victory over Air Force by about two touchdowns. And in the fourth quarter, all looked good as the Horned Frogs led, 17-3. But Air Force’s comeback destroyed the BlogDog’s hopes of a perfect year.

This is good in one respect: I had told the BlogWife that if Norm got to 5-0, we would need to start ignoring him around the house the same way baseball players stay away from a pitcher who has a no-hitter going. The BlogWife told me that if I ignored Norm, she would ignore me.

Shows you where I stand in the BlogHouse.

BlogWife also gets mad when I leave glasses of beer on the floor while watching TV. Because when I leave the room, even momentarily, Norm, invariably, attacks them.

I thought his thirst for the frosty brew would make him pick against those sobriety-loving Provo dwellers this week. But Norm is going with BYU to snap its two-game losing streak by breaking the Falcons’ three-game winning streak.

Quick refresher on how Norm makes his picks: I put a mini-replica Air Force helmet and the mini-replica helmet of the opponent the Falcons are facing that week in front of Norm. Whichever one Norm goes to first (best three out of five times) is the one he thinks is going to win.

If Norm picks the same helmet three times in a row, he’s thinking blowout. If he chooses one team three times and the other team once, he’s thinking the game will be decided by about seven to 10 points. If he chooses one team three times and the other one twice, he’s predicting a close game.

This week Norm went BYU first, then Air Force, then BYU twice in a row.

There is no truth to the rumor that I doused the BYU helmet with Corona.

Norm’s Pick: BYU 34, Air Force 24
Norm’s Record: 2-1